As Davie noted in his calcs, it's pretty small.
If we had a band slot 1" below the shaft, and the bands were stretched 40", then the angle would be about 1.4°. If we had a 200 lb band load, then the vertical component would be 200 x Sin(1.4°) = 5 lbs.
But here's the part that has always confused me. That small vertical force only serves to pull the shaft and stock together. Whatever force is pulling the stock up, is exactly the same as the force pulling the shaft down. They are already touching, so one cannot be pulled closer to the other. So I don't understand how the vertical component of the band force can generate muzzle jump, even if this component were large.
I can see it if this were an old style gun where the spear were unsupported over much of its length, because then there can be relative motion between the shaft and stock. But that's not the case for most guns.
In my head, it has always seemed that muzzle jump had more to do with the way the recoil force acted about 1) the grip, and 2) the gun's center of mass. Davie points out that the mass of the gun is small compared to the mass of the diver, so it would seem that the height of the grip would dominate. If you follow Davie's analysis a little further, it may even reach the theoretical conclusion that you could reduce muzzle jump by LOWERING the band slot, to put it inline with the grip?
It seems to me that if the Band Slot, grip, and Center of Mass of the gun were all in line, then you should have no muzzle jump. I have wondered if the way the bands jump around at the end of their contraction could somehow cause the muzzle to move. But I don't know how this would be different for inline versus normal bands.