Judah,
I agree that increasing to 14" would be sufficient and that making that jump and seeing the results is a better move than going straight to 18"; especially considering it would take some time to start seeing shootable fish consistently at 18".
People being idiots is certainly a major issue with this but more I feel that people are selfish and/or don't care/believe what the scientist say so they take what they want. But with the idiots thing I think a lot of that is a lack of education on the part of the scientist. Personally I think that one should have to take a short test on fish ID, measurement methods, and current laws to get their license.
Unfortunately until the idiots and poachers are reigned in the laws are going to end up limiting those who are honest as the unethical hunters/fisherman are the ones causing a great deal of the problem.
The size increase proposal has nothing to do with current regs or education; it is a matter of biology. At 12" it is a high likelihood that the HF has not spawned whereas at 14" that likelihood is much less and at 18" it is almost null. With such great fishing pressure on HF the increase is necessary regardless of how educated the hunters are.
As far as "giving up your rights" I think that may be a bit of an overstatement. True, typically the size limits are not lowered again but it isn't really a right to shoot a fish at a certain size; or at all really. But historically once the limit is increased the average size increases as well.
Miami does tend to have a stronger population of HF and it increases as you move south into the Keys. I postulate that this is because of a few reasons. One is that the shore diving isn't as easy there so the fish aren't as easily accessible as they are in here. Another is that just south of Miami is the upper keys reserve and I feel that Miami gets quite a bit of spillover effects from the reserve via larvae transmission on the currents. Spillover effects are actually a huge benefit of MPAs.
Tuna,
I agree people need to be better educated and that perhaps that falls on us as marine scientist but the material is out there to be read. The issue is that some people simply are greedy and take the grasshopper approach to what the earth"owes them" and sees taking of her gifts as a right rather than the privilege it is. Also there are people like me who study this but there seems to be a knee jerk reaction on the part of the hunters (which I am also) to distrust the science and regulations and take their own anecdotal data as real data. As with Lunker's example in Miami; a few spots in one city is a rather small sample size to determine stock health given how interconnected the stocks are up the coast.
Sorry for the length but I have been reading on this a lot lately so it is on the forefront of my mind, lol
But my end goal is to keep healthy stocks so I have plenty of fish to shoot! 